Packers 34, Bills 7

A new poll was published today (Monday Sept 20th) and it loks like Rob Ford is for real. Apparently, people are angry, and, as the theory goes, this often leads to a knee-jerk reaction which, in this case, has come out of right field. Toronto voters appear set to elect another buffoon. Mel Lastman, someone else seems to have discovered your secret formula.

Ford has the support of almost 46% of decided voters, a full 24 percentage points ahead of George Smitherman who stands second at 21%. Joe Pants is a close third, less than 5 points behind Smitherman. Rosseau Rocky and Sarah Thomson are out of it. I thought that Rocky might have fared a little better after his recent announcement about wanting a tunnel between the Allen and the Gardiner but apparently not. A quarter of voters remain undecided but this is down from about 40% a month ago. There is no good news in this poll for any candidate other than Ford. His message is resonating and as undecided voters make up their minds, his support is growing. I had sort of dismissed the mid August poll where he had a lead which represented the poll's margin of error and no one was really paying much attention. There would be movement in the next poll I said. I was right about the movement but wrong about the direction. It looks like Ford will have to stumble badly (and maybe multiple times) to blow the lead he now has. Rest assured, he is more than capable of doing this, and, if he does, it will be remembered as one of the greatest political collapses in Toronto politics. I hope it happens but I doubt that it will.

I listened to Smitherman's sound bites from today and, frankly, he just didn't sound like his heart was in it. He is the candidate who can stop Ford and unite the city, he said. He didn't say it with much conviction and it occurred to me that for a guy who clearly has had his sights on this job for a long time, his campaign has been profoundly lacking in energy and imagination. If he really wants to be the mayor, he has a month to generate some excitement and spark around his campaign and tell the voters why he wants this job and why he would be a good choice. So far, Ford has been the one defining the issues and setting the agenda. That's what a legitimate front runner does.